Changing of the Guard

At a meeting of Associate Economists last fall, our department head casually asked how many of us were applying to grad school or otherwise planned on leaving in the next year or so. Given the competitive nature of grad applications, I am not entirely surprised that there was complete and total silence; no one responded and we all sort of shifted uncomfortably in our chairs. Since the probability of getting rejected from all the grad programs you apply to is quite nonzero, we have pretty strong incentives to ensure that we are not replaced by a new hire. Though, to be fair, many of us (myself included) were uncertain at that point about where we would be in a year.

Flash forward to the end of March, and grad school results are in. A quick survey reveals that 9 out of the 20 AEs currently employed will be gone by next August, a whopping 45% turnover. (I did not include the casework department in these figures.) Of the 11 remaining AEs, at least two are considering pursuit of unrelated fields (not econ/math/business). Perhaps my unorthodox exit strategy is rubbing off on others.

About a year ago, I was pondering the transient nature of my social circle and felt a little left behind. Today, I can say with confidence that I have not stagnated and I am going places. About 7,700 km away, in fact. And despite the large exodus of AEs this summer, life at the Fed will still go on and on and on and on...

Anyway, congrats to everyone who was accepted to grad school this year. Anecdotally, it seems like this year was as tough or even tougher than last year. (I heard of someone who won his school's undergrad thesis award and had two incredibly well-known recommenders who hasn't gotten in anywhere.) So, it is no small feat that many AEs have landed spots in respected econ PhD programs.